Thinking and wisdom of testing propylene industry

2022-08-15
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Propylene is one of the most important petrochemical products. It not only has a complete production process, but also has a rich downstream industrial chain. In recent years, with the development of downstream products such as polypropylene, propylene oxide, butanol and octanol, propylene, as the main raw material of these bulk chemical commodities, has an increasing demand

new technologies have been singing all the way, and the propylene market has finally seen three pillars

in recent years, various scientific research institutions have also increased their research on the production process of propylene. In August 2010, China Shenhua Baotou 600000 T/a coal to olefin project was officially put into operation. In October, 2013, the 600000 T/a propane dehydrogenation project of Tianjin Bohai Petrochemical was also put into commercial operation, which represents the transformation of coal-based methanol to olefin project and propane dehydrogenation project from assumption to reality in China. With the original steam cracking, catalytic cracking, olefin conversion and other different production processes, propylene officially entered the era of diversified incoming materials

low cost advantage and good economic benefits have quickly attracted a large number of investors. Within five years, as many as 20 coal based methanol to olefin projects have been put into operation, and the number of propane dehydrogenation projects has also increased to 6, resulting in propylene production capacity of 5.21 million tons/year and 3.45 million tons/year respectively. In 2013, the propylene production capacity brought by coal based methanol to olefin and propane dehydrogenation accounted for 9.35% and 2.86% of the total propylene production capacity respectively. With the centralized and large-scale production of new processes, up to now, its production capacity has accounted for 19.06% and 12.62%, and the three pillars of the propylene market have finally taken shape

supply saturation broke and tended to balance, and propylene suffered Waterloo

in order to better seize the market, most of the newly invested new process projects are full-scale production. Coal to olefin projects are mostly concentrated in the central and western regions, and most products have supporting downstream, so the direct impact on propylene is relatively small. The methanol to olefin and propane dehydrogenation projects near the eastern coast release a large number of propylene trading goods. More abundant sources of raw materials, the business strategy of winning by quantity and the expansion beyond downstream development "Shi Feng, Secretary General of China Forest Products Industry Association, and Fu Feng, director of the Institute of wood industry, Chinese Academy of Forestry Sciences, all made the propylene market gradually become full from supply shortage. The inflow of external supply sources has increased the regional supply pressure of the eastern coastal market

take the market in September as an example, the downstream demand is weak, and propylene is mostly purchased at a lower price. The initial intention of the local refining manufacturers is to gradually digest the inventory and sell at a low price. However, on the one hand, a large number of low-cost goods from the northeast and East China flowed into Shandong's major demand areas. On the other hand, accidents such as the explosion in Tianjin triggered a security alarm, and ports around the country were under martial law. All cargo ships sailed to the only Dongying Port that could be docked at that time and shipped nearby. The regional balance of propylene market was instantly broken, and the market offer suffered a Waterloo, falling from 6500 yuan/ton to 3800 yuan/ton, down 41.54% At that time, the price of methanol was yuan/ton, and the price of imported propane fluctuated in the US dollar/ton range. Based on this calculation, the costs of methanol to propylene and propane dehydrogenation to propylene were yuan/ton and yuan/ton respectively, both of which were in an obvious loss state

there is no fear of frustration in the road, and heroes bravely rush to find the true chapter

however, although this state has triggered concerns in the industry, it has not triggered warnings in the industry, and the commencement load of relevant projects remains at a high level. No matter how depressed the market is, the supply of factory goods is still continuously distributed to the outside world. We believe that for a long time, the propylene price war will become the mainstream, and in addition to the axle load increase of 10000 ton heavy haul trains, Wanye was forced to stop or limit production is only a temporary adjustment

theoretically, one of the ways to solve this situation is to standardize the operation behavior of enterprises, but Shandong Dilian, the leader of propylene, is constrained by its weak inventory capacity, and often has to operate according to the market. This makes many enterprises, especially emerging enterprises, turn to seek the integrated development of the whole industrial chain. From the heart, this is a better choice. Large enterprises make full use of the resources at hand to build a perfect industrial chain, so as to achieve the original intention of maximizing benefits, which is also in line with the general development trend of enterprises. However, the market of each product is saturated. When a product market has been or is close to saturation, it is obviously inappropriate to only start from the enterprise's own planning, regardless of the affordability of the whole market. However, there are only two things we need to do to launch 1000 new energy vehicles in each city for demonstration and operation: first, strengthen the research on the industry, improve the foresight of enterprises, including the enthusiasm for new technology research and development and resource reserves, and always be at the forefront of the industry. Second, we should be more cautious and rational in the face of market fluctuations, especially sharp rises and falls

in the next few years, major breakthroughs will be made in coal based methanol to olefin projects such as daze chemical, Qinghai Salt Lake, China Coal Mengda, Shenhua Yulin and Zhongtian hechuang, as well as propane high-end equipment such as Hebei Haiwei, China soft packaging and Ningbo Fuji petrochemical. Dehydrogenation projects will be put into operation successively, and propylene may face the risk of overcapacity. Of course, the demand for propylene in China will continue to grow in the future, and the digestion of new production capacity also needs a process. There will also be many uncertain factors in this process, such as market fluctuations, technological changes, and policy adjustments. Although it increases the difficulty of breaking through the three pillars of the market, it also provides opportunities for many practitioners to change. Focus on the market, benefit and healthy development of ourselves. In this reform, we will witness the thinking and wisdom of the propylene industry

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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