The hottest medium-term futures domestic importers

2022-08-21
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Medium term futures: domestic importers frequently "default", and the rubber market is still short for a long time

about 70% of China's rubber is imported from Southeast Asia every year, but since October, for example, the price of natural rubber has been "falling rapidly", with a decline of 50% in a month. Therefore, domestic importers continue to "abandon orders"

the demand for rubber is becoming weaker

in terms of automobiles, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile production in September was 3.2%. Compared with the monthly growth rate of about 20% in the half year, the negative impact of weak domestic demand and exports began to spread to the automobile industry. As the largest country in tire production and export, China's output accounts for 30% of the world's total output, 45% of which is for export. Affected by the global economic recession, the growth rate of domestic and export demand will slow down in the next two years. In order to save costs and achieve greater profits, trapezoidal screw will be used instead of ball screw, which is large and consumes water and electricity. Domestically, the domestic demand for truck tyres will continue to grow by 8% thanks to the increase in truck ownership. However, considering that the replacement space for radial tyres to bias tyres has gradually narrowed, it is expected that the growth rate of domestic demand for truck radial tyres will fall back to 18%. In terms of exports, China's truck tire exports account for more than 30%, mainly exported to Europe and the United States. The global economic downturn has put pressure on China's tire exports, and the growth rate is expected to be difficult to recover before 2010

to sum up, the declaration of reducing production in the main rubber producing countries has played a certain role in boosting the market, but in the case of weak demand in the later stage, whether the reduction can support the rubber price depends on the implementation of specific production reduction measures in the main rubber producing countries. In the long run, only by reducing production and changing market supply can we reverse the weak pattern of rubber market

operation suggestions: Although there has been a certain technical correction in rubber recently, the weak fundamentals are still difficult to change in the short term, so it is prudent to hold multiple orders in the short term, and 14500 pressure levels need to be broken; For a long time, it is still empty thinking

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