PTA of the hottest Su Wu futures showed high press

Su Wu Futures: PTA's high pressure this week appeared

I. Market Review

PTA's high level fluctuated this week in Zhengzhou, and the spot market also rose first and then fell

the main contract ta809 closed at 9700, down 140 from last week. The trading volume and position are significantly enlarged

in terms of spot goods, today's China fiber PTA price index was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; There was a slight correction in upstream costs. On June 19, the closing price of CFR Taiwan/China paraxylene (PX) was 1664 5 dollars, down 40 dollars/ton from last weekend; The prices of downstream products continue to maintain a stable trend of follow-up. According to the China National fiber price index, polyester staple fiber rose by 100 yuan to 12000 yuan/ton this week, filament chips rose by 150 yuan to 11900 yuan/ton, and bottle grade chips rose by 200 yuan to 12400 yuan/ton

II. Market analysis

(I) please take out the spare fuse and install it:

1. The PX price is still high. Although there was a slight decline this week, in the face of international crude oil that still wanted to climb, the proposed price of Asian PX contract rose by about $300 per ton to $per ton in July

2. PTA inventory in Zhengzhou continued to decrease. As of June 19, Zhengzhou warehouse receipts decreased by 2016 to 14564 compared with last week, and there was basically no inventory pressure

3. MEG weakened this week, falling 750 yuan to 9000 yuan/ton compared with last week. MEG weakness eased the cost pressure of polyester enterprises, which will form a certain support for PTA

(II) negative factors:

1 the price difference between Formosa Plastics, PTA and cotton continues to narrow, which puts pressure on the upward movement of PTA. On June 20, the price difference between polyester short and ccindex (328) was 1867 yuan, less than 1953 yuan last week and 2468 yuan the previous week

2. Although the quotation of downstream textile enterprises is basically maintained, the transaction preference is gradually carried out. The continuous appreciation of the RMB has brought pressure on the export of terminal textiles, and the cost transfer of textile enterprises has been blocked. It seems that it is even more difficult for the textile industry to accept the price rise of polyester fiber again in order to maximize the accuracy of ball screw spinning, resulting in a large number of foreign trade orders transferred to Southeast Asia

3. The national development and Reform Commission raised the price of industrial electricity, which also caused cost pressure on textile enterprises

III. outlook

the adjustment of refined oil and electricity prices by the national development and Reform Commission will cause short-term negative effects on international crude oil, but the weak increase in crude oil supply will limit the space below crude oil, and PX is expected to continue to operate at a high level, thus supporting PTA; However, the sluggish downstream demand has made it difficult to transfer costs, and the upward pressure on PTA appears. The narrowing of the price difference between polyester and cotton will also inhibit PTA

in general, the role of downstream demand in the late trend of PTA is highlighted again. The upward momentum of PTA has weakened, or it is building a phased top, but the space below is limited. In terms of operation, reducing holdings can be considered for multiple orders, and shorting is not suitable

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